The US solar industry is standing at a pivotal junction—one where policy, manufacturing, and market dynamics will dictate the pace of progress for the next decade. As per Wood Mackenzie’s recent report, while the solar sector has reached record heights in 2024, the road ahead looks a lot more complicated—and potentially bumpy.
In its flagship Solar & Energy Storage Summit, Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Analyst Sylbia Leyva Martinez forecasted that the US will add 502 GW (DC) of solar capacity by 2035, with annual installations holding steady between 40 GW and 50 GWdc. For context, the US added 50 GW in 2024 alone, making it the strongest year on record.
But here’s the twist—this year may also mark a peak, not a trend.
📉 Flat Growth Projected — But Not Set in Stone
According to Wood Mackenzie, solar installations will gradually decline through 2028, only to witness modest growth resuming toward the end of the decade. With the US having 236 GW cumulative capacity by the end of 2024, the 502 GW projection would nearly triple today’s footprint.
However, all of this is extremely sensitive to policy outcomes.
“Our forecasts show a potential 24% upside in the high scenario and a 25% downside in the low scenario,”
— Sylbia Leyva Martinez, Wood Mackenzie
🔄 What’s Causing the Forecast Rollercoaster?
Here are the factors creating major uncertainty:
AI-driven Load Growth: Exponential electricity demand from AI datacenters is adding pressure.
Gas Turbine Shortages: Potential lack of supply before 2029.
Tariff & Trade Policies: Especially under shifting political climates.
Future of the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act): Especially concerning tax credits and subsidies.
Labor & Interconnection Delays: Persistent pain points for developers.
These elements are shaping a market that’s both promising and precarious. The upcoming US elections and shifting economic priorities could have a direct impact on how many projects get greenlit—and how fast.
🏭 Meanwhile, Solar Manufacturing is Booming
One of the brightest spots is domestic manufacturing.
Wood Mackenzie reports:
Module manufacturing capacity is projected to jump from 17 GW (2023) to 144 GW (2027).
2024 alone saw a 190% increase, with module assembly capacity reaching 42.1 GW.
Texas and Georgia lead the charge, adding 8.6 GW and 8.4 GW, respectively.
This is a golden window for solar designers, engineers, and contractors. A strong domestic supply chain could help offset risks posed by trade disputes and long-distance procurement.
But even here, caution remains:
“Challenging trade policies may jeopardize new investments in the sector.”
— Sylbia Leyva Martinez
🧭 RS Solar CAD Group’s Perspective: Navigating the New Normal
At RS Solar CAD Group, we understand that solar project viability now depends on much more than just system design. From permit approvals and AHJ compliance to engineering stamp timelines, every element must work in sync with evolving national and local policies.
As the future of federal incentives remains under debate, speed and flexibility will be key differentiators in this market. Our team is ready to support solar contractors with:
🚀 Fast-track Sales Proposals (30 min)
📐 Permit Plan Sets (7 hours turnaround)
📄 PE Stampings (12 hours delivery)
📊 Strategic support for 2025 project pipelines
🔋 Looking Ahead
The US solar industry is still on a transformative journey. While policy uncertainty looms large, the foundation for long-term growth remains strong. With manufacturing rising, electrification booming, and AI revolutionizing demand, the next 10 years are likely to be defined not just by how much solar is installed—but how well-prepared the industry is to adapt.
Let’s stay future-ready.
Let’s keep building smarter
Team RS Solar CAD Group
Design. Permit. Engineer. Deliver.